“We are increasingly worried about central banks making a policy error, and of new geopolitical tail risks. Given the recent escalation in hawkish rhetoric, the likelihood of central banks committing a policy mistake with negative global consequences has increased, and this started showing in various cracks in FX and rates markets. Even if a mistake is avoided, a delay will likely be introduced for the global market and economic recovery.” – Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan strategist
USAGOLD note: Howard Marks’ recent warnings about the failures of forecasting comes to mind. (Please see Friday’s post The illusion of knowledge) The Fed, we will add, is just as capable of botching a forecast as analysts in the private sector though the consequences are significantly more profound and far-reaching.