Gold News Hubb
Advertisement Banner
  • Home
  • News
  • Gold Mining
  • Contact
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Gold Mining
  • Contact
No Result
View All Result
Wellnessnewshubb
No Result
View All Result
Home News

The illusion of knowledge | Today’s top gold news and opinion

admin by admin
October 9, 2022
in News


OaktreeCapital/Howard Marks/9-8-2022

“It was that lunch that started me thinking about writing yet another memo on the futility of macro forecasting. Soon thereafter a few additional inputs arrived – a book, a piece in Bloomberg Opinion, and a newspaper article – all of which supported my thesis (or perhaps played to my ‘confirmation bias’ – i.e., the tendency to embrace and interpret new information in a manner that confirms one’s preexisting views). Together, the lunch and these items inspired this memo’s theme: the reasons why forecasts are rarely helpful.”

USAGOLD note: Marks makes a strong case for disregarding forecasts citing Boorstin’s observation that “the greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of graphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend Read

knowledge.” Forecasts. We all read them. Most rely on them. But how often do they increase our wealth? Marks, who writes for an audience of mostly money managers, pointedly asserts that “forecasts can’t be right often enough to be worthwhile.” Too often, forecasters apply “one-factor models… they’re playing checkers when they should be playing 3-D chess.” All in all, a very enlightening read at the link……

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Image attribution: OTAVIO1981, CC BY-SA 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Share

This entry was posted in Today’s top gold news and opinion. Bookmark the permalink.



Source link

Previous Post

Physical Gold Demand Soars – Numismatic News

Next Post

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Next Post

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Recommended

IAMGOLD Corporation – IAMGOLD Renews Preliminary Base Shelf Prospectus

7 months ago

2022 Trade Deficit Signals Inflation Closer to 15%

2 months ago

© 2022 Gold News Hubb All rights reserved.

Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement unless specified. By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions.

Navigate Site

  • Home
  • News
  • Gold Mining
  • Contact

Newsletter Sign Up.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Gold Mining
  • Contact

© 2022 Gold News Hubb All rights reserved.